Oscar night preview 2011

Tonight at the Oscars all of Hollywood is united in one thought. Thank hell Ricky Gervais isn’t here.

Sure it is all a massive PR back-slap-athon designed to sell more product but hey; it can also be a fun way to spend five hours of your life while overdosing on pringles and tequila.

I’m not an old fart yet but I hark back to the days of Billy Crystal’s assured handling of the Telecast. He would schmooze the crowd but he would also take the P, usually out of Jack Nicholson. Tonight the producers are going for yoof. Anne Hathaway (28) and James Franco (32) will gently tease each other and will mostly be very attractive in front of a ‘stunning virtual reality backdrop’. Okay. Both are likeable and talented though not comedians by trade. So we’ll see.

Will we see Banksy though?

Let’s hope a deal has been done to let him verify his identity, with a passport and birthmark combo perhaps, so he can collect his Oscar wearing a monkey mask, or even better: as Mel Gibson.

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Watching The King’s Speech a second time last night I was quickly reminded how the award season gives way so brutally to the summer fare, seeing back to back trailers for Transformers 3 and Cowboys & Aliens. I don’t think the Lady in her 80s behind me who said “Oh that was marvellous” will be queuing up. In front of us an eleven year old confirmed the wide appeal of TKS which will win it Best Picture tonight, so what else is going to happen?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win?
Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. She is in 90% of the movie so she’s only in this category and not Best Actress for tactical reasons.

Who should win?
Melissa Leo for The Fighter. The character is white trash perfection, the anti-Helena Bonham Carter.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win? Geoffrey Rush for TKS. A subtle performance to support his King, the actor is well liked too.

Who should win? Geoffrey Rush for TKS.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who will win? David Seidler for The King's Speech. He’s a veteran and it is a lovely screenplay, balancing character, plot and little reversals.

Who should win? If we are saying ‘original’, surely Christopher Nolan’s Inception is truer to the word, and it is not like he’s going to win big elsewhere.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who will win? Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network. His script is in-your-face brilliant; making the facebook story fly with smart dialogue and a clever structure, which will be familiar to West Wing fans.

Who should win? Sorkin.

BEST ACTRESS
Who will win? Natalie Portman for Black Swan. It is her time and this film takes her into new, darker territory. She is blooming pregnant so we will await the tears.

Who should win?
Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone. A breakthrough performance of great intelligence and power in a more understated film than Black Swan.

BEST ACTOR
Who will win? Colin Firth, of course.

Who should win? Colin Firth. James Franco can do everything though, can't he?

BEST FILM
What a varied year. From Black Swan, to Toy Story 3, TKS and The Fighter. Inception and Winter's Bone are great too, in their own widely different ways. But it is TKS which has stolen a march on earlier favorite The Social Network.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who will will?
Here's where I think the TKS gravy train will derail, with David Fincher getting the nod for his handling of The Social Network, and a great career.

Who should win? Fincher, though kudos to Tom Hooper.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Trent Reznor for The Social Network, as it propelled the movie forward, but Hans Zimmer's Inception should run it close.

Finally all eyes will be on BEST DOCUMENTARY......Banksy to pip Restrepo and then what happens...